Adobe Predicts Record $91 Billion in Sales This Holiday Season

Mobile Visits Exceed Desktop Visits, but Sales Fall Short; Most
Desired Gifts Include VR Devices, Pokémon, Barbie, Lego, Hot Wheels


SAN JOSE, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its 2016
Digital Insights Shopping Predictions
for the upcoming holiday
season. The breadth of data Adobe analyzes has allowed the company to
successfully predict consumer spending within two percent in previous
years, the most accurate in the industry. Adobe expects an extended
holiday season with consumers shopping much earlier and later in the
season. For the first time, 53 consecutive days (57 calendar days in
total) will exceed $1 billion in online sales, versus 31 consecutive
days last year, a 71 percent year-over-year (YoY) increase. Cyber Monday
is expected to be the largest online shopping day of all time,
generating $3.36 billion in sales with 9.4 percent growth. Sales on
Thanksgiving Day will increase 15.6 percent YoY to $2 billion, but not
reach the 25 percent YoY increase of 2015. Black Friday will grow 11.3
percent YoY (14.3 percent in 2015) to $3.05 billion.

The extended season will lead to an eleven percent ($9.1 billion)
increase in online sales to a total of $91.6 billion. Large retailers*
are expected to account for the bulk of the growth, with an average
growth rate of 16.6 percent compared to smaller retailers at seven
percent. For the average retailer, five percent of consumers are
expected to drive 35 percent ($38.5 billion) of all online sales while
one percent of product SKUs will account for 74 percent of sales. For
the first time mobile devices will exceed desktops in shopping visits,
53 versus 47 percent respectively. However, mobile shopping visits will
only account for 34 percent of sales, a 19 percent gap between visits
and purchases (see
separate press release
), likely a consequence of poor mobile
shopping experiences. In addition, Adobe data shows that total organic
web traffic in North America is stalling with only 0.1 percent growth
over the past 42 months (see
separate press release
).

“We expect to see a five percent spike in online shopping in early
November and a record 24 percent increase in the last two weeks of
December,” said Mickey Mericle, vice president, Marketing and Customer
Insights at Adobe. “‘Click and collect,’ faster shipping and retail
promotions starting earlier than ever are all contributing to the
extended shopping season. Despite the uptick in sales we expect to see
slower growth in total online sales this year.”

Top Gifts

Consumers who price shop will be able to save an average of 20 percent
by shopping for the same products across online retailers. The most
desired gift items this season are expected to be VR devices (Oculus,
PlayStation VR and HTC Vive), Pokémon, Barbie, Lego, Hot Wheels and
Frozen toys, as well as Google Home and Amazon Echo. According to a
complementary Adobe survey, consumers will spend 15 percent of their
money on gifts for themselves compared to 66 percent on gifts for others
and 19 percent for decorations and parties. Lower prices and free
shipping remain the primary reasons people shop online, although
convenience is on the rise.

Additional findings include:

  • The best dates for deals and highest out-of-stock days vary by
    product category.
    For example, discounts for apparel will be
    highest on Tuesday before Thanksgiving Day while game consoles will
    see highest out-of-stock notifications on Thanksgiving Day and Black
    Friday. (See graphic for more details.) Despite the ability to find
    steep discounts, 25 percent of customers will end up paying higher
    prices because they are loyal to a retailer. Forty-one percent of
    products will be purchased at the retailer with the lowest price
    during the holiday season versus 31 percent during the rest of the
    year.
  • Mobile shopping: Despite slower growth in mobile visits,
    Thanksgiving Day and Christmas will be the biggest mobile retail days
    of the year (59 percent and 66 percent respectively). Cyber Monday
    will see 49 percent in mobile visits with the largest increase (ten
    percent).
  • Online sales growth by state: Washington, D.C., Washington,
    Nevada, Kansas and Nebraska will see the highest growth in online
    sales (from 15 to 36 percent). Delaware, Kentucky, Arkansas, West
    Virginia and Mississippi will see the lowest growth (from four to five
    percent). The highest growth states typically have populations with
    more graduate degrees, more student debt, more total debt and higher
    rent as share of income.
  • Finding the best deals: Consumers are most likely to find the
    best deals through display advertising (29 percent), followed by
    social media (14 percent) and email (13 percent). Forty percent of
    consumers indicate email is the best way to reach them on a mobile
    device while they are shopping for the holidays.

Adobe leverages machine learning to identify retail insights from the
billions of data points that flow through Adobe Marketing Cloud. The
resulting predictive model is the most comprehensive and accurate one in
the industry. The forecast is based on an analysis of 55 million product
SKUs and aggregated and anonymous data of more than one trillion visits
to 4,500 retail websites. Seven dollars and fifty cents out of every ten
dollars spent online with the top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe
Marketing Cloud.* Adobe is able to track 80 percent of all transactions
from the top 100 retailers in the U.S.**

Helpful Links:

About Adobe

Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more
information, visit www.adobe.com.

* Based on the top 100 retailers in the IR 2016 Top 500 eGuide

** Internet
Retailer’s 2016 Top 500 eGuide
, an independent source that measures
online commerce technologies

© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All rights reserved. Adobe and the
Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe
Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contacts

Adobe
Melissa Chanslor, 415-832-5489
chanslor@adobe.com
or
Stefan
Offermann, 408-536-4023
sofferma@adobe.com