JPMorgan Chase Institute’s Local Consumer Commerce Index Shows a 0.1 Percent Decrease in Consumer Spending Growth in November 2016

Marks the fifth consecutive month of spending contractions; magnitude
of contractions fell continually since August

WASHINGTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local
Consumer Commerce Index
(LCCI) for November 2016, which showed that
9 of the 15 US cities analyzed had higher year-over-year consumer
spending growth rates in November than they did in October. While
overall year-over-year consumer spending growth declined by 0.1 percent
in November – making it the fifth consecutive month of negative growth –
the magnitude of those contractions has continually decreased since
August.

Across all 15 cities, fuel spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to
growth, breaking a trend of negative growth contributions in virtually
every month since October 2014.

This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and
surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and
in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Denver, Detroit,
Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), San
Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at actual de-identified
financial transactions, LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic view of the
health and vibrancy of the U.S. consumer and the places where businesses
operate.

“While we are still seeing an overall contraction in year-over-year
local commerce growth, it’s encouraging to see the magnitude of these
contractions decreasing over time,” said Diana Farrell, President and
CEO of the JPMorgan Chase Institute
. “Many changes contributed to
this positive trajectory including notably strong growth in spending at
small businesses but also a rare, if small, increase in fuel spending
growth.”

The key highlights from the latest Index include:

  • Houston registered a 3.3 percent decline in November 2016—a smaller
    contraction compared to the 6.1 percent drop in August 2016, but a
    larger contraction in comparison to the 2.9 percent drop in September
    2016.
  • Detroit experienced flat growth in November 2016, breaking a trend of
    declines in growth that started in July 2016.
  • Small business growth rebounded significantly to contribute 0.9
    percentage points in November, but this growth was offset by a 0.9
    percentage point contraction in mid-sized business growth in that same
    month.
  • Other services, like barbers, health providers, and gyms, contributed
    0.9 percentage points to growth in November 2016, the largest
    contribution across all product types in that month. At the same time,
    durables spending subtracted 1.1 percentage points from growth, the
    largest detraction of any product type in November 2016. Durables have
    been a consistent drag on growth since August 2015.

The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer
spending.

  • The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported
    measures of how consumers think they spend.
  • The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan
    areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other
    spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic
    diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the United States and
    account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
  • The index also presents a more granular view of local consumer
    commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income,
    business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the
    location of the business. For each lens, we show how different
    segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
  • The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have
    not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors
    such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.

Each release of the LCCI will describe the economic picture of local
communities and provide a powerful
tool
for city development officials, businesses, investors, and
statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health
of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.

About the JPMorgan Chase Institute

The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to
delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good.
Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and
nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and
interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts,
timely data, and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to
advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique
proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops
analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy,
frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading
thinkers. For more information visit: jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.

Contacts

JPMorgan Chase Institute
Nicole Kennedy, 215-864-5732
nicole.kennedy@chase.com